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THE FRAGILE CEASEFIRE AND LESSONS DERIVED FROM THE WAR

BABANDI GUMEL <bagumel@btinternet.com>

 Aug 17, 2006

 

Monday the 14th August marked the beginning to the end of the 5-weeek long fierce battle involving the Israeli forces and the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Like every other War all the two sides employed every thing available at their disposal to ensure success at the end of the Conflict so this is why it is no wonder when both sides claimed victory at the end of hostilities. War like game although very serious this time all the parties involved would use all necessary military hardware available to win the conflict so they may be seen as victor instead of vanquished at the end of the game. It is a serious challenge therefore before one wages war he has to make sure that he is going to be victorious against his foe although is not definite. With this in mind when the Israeli Forces launched their assault in Southern Lebanon on the 12th July after the capture of their two soldiers by the Hezbollah Forces no body expected the kind of response even the Hezbollah did not anticipate such retaliation which came with full force meant to dismantle the Organisation that would force them to submit and surrender to this most advanced air bombardment seen carried during the five week old conflict. As they were unopposed in the Air no body could challenge the might of their air raids the people in Southern Lebanon had no alternative but to resign to their fate seeing their houses being demolished unable to do anything and the whole World sat and just only watching on their Television screens.. As this conflict raged many people and onlookers even their foes (The Israelis) were surprised at the resilience of the Hezbollah for their continued defiance  and resistance despite the excessive bombardment seen as disproportionate. The Hezbollah kept on  sending barrages of Katyusha rockets to Northern Israel which forced nearly one million to go underground so as to take cover from the attack. While the Israeli forces carried more than 4000 sorties from the beginning of the conflict using smart bombs the Hezbollah always defended very much on such rockets which frightened the populace especially those residing in Haifa and other towns in the Northern Israel. Altogether it sent out more than 3,000 of such rockets which forced the people within the range to migrate from their areas where they lived to other places or took cover in the bunkers which was so scary alarming and devastating psychologically. The psychological impact of the Israeli bombardment and the continued Hezbollah barrage rocket attacks had such profound effect on the civilian population on both sides. While the battle continued to spread with no end in sight so also the propaganda among the two sides continued unabated with each side accusing the other of the one responsible for starting or causing this war which lasted for almost  five weeks. Since this fierce War of attrition began both sides tried to inflict the maximum damage they could on each other so as to be seen as the one gaining and not losing. As the Israelis continued with the merciless bombardment killing more than one thousand people mainly civilians the Hezbollah continued with their rocket barrages sending them incessantly on average more than two hundred a day landing in Northern Israel forcing people to take cover all the time. At the beginning of the War the Israeli jets continued with the bombing campaign aimed at scaring and dispersing  population causing maximum damage and  destruction that would help destroy the Hezbollah rockets fired constantly against the Israeli civilian population but there was no let up or sign of relenting in this fierce challenging campaign which lasted for almost five weeks.. While the Hezbollah remained defiant incessantly sending barrages of rockets a time sending more than 350 to Northern Israel scaring the ordinary people the frightened Lebanese population on the other hand tried to escape from the South to areas of safety due to the almost  continuous 24-hour bombardment by the Israelis. The bombing of Qana Village which killed more than 50 people mainly women and children became the turning point in this fierce conflict which made the Israelis relent for a while to suspend their Air campaign for 48hours.However they resumed the campaign within twenty-four hours of the suspension as they did not like to be seen as weak which drew attention of the whole world making Hezbollah to gain an upper hand in the propaganda campaign. Initially the US and Britain the main backers of the Israelis did not want halt the hostilities so as to enable the Israelis inflict maximum damage on the Hezbollah forcing it to crumble however the Charismatic Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah remained defiant in Televised broadcast to his people on the Hezbollah Channel this is why the campaign continued for over a Month.  In the end as the Air campaign remained quite ineffective unable to destroy the Hezbollah rockets the Israelis decided to launch a ground offensive bringing another 30,000 soldiers to help strengthen the existing forces under the Air cover. However the Hezbollah Leader Rhetorical and as ever defiant reminded the Israelis that there coming to Southern Lebanon is like digging their graves over there which indirectly had psychological impact not only on the Israelis but all its friends. Seeing the way things were getting out of hand diplomatic manoeuvre aimed at bringing this conflict to an end started at the United Nations in earnest. A draft Resolution was quickly adopted which however did not take consideration of the Lebanese objection. In the end after intense diplomatic wrangling a concession was reached and a new Resolution 1701 was adopted and the Secretary General of the United Nations Kofi Annan announced the Ceasefire would come into effect on Monday the 14th.Immediately  after the announcement the two opposing side embarked on the final campaign fierce enraging battle  which led to the loss of 24 Soldiers by the Israeli the highest number ever lost since the beginning of the conflict which displaced more than I million Lebanese and forced almost similar number of Israelis to go underground for the fear of the usual Hezbollah rocket attacks. Apparently the ceasefire is holding and the civilian population in Lebanon and Israel are all going back to their homes and even the the Lebanese forces have crossed the Litani River to take over from the Israelis who have started withdrawing under the peace agreement. As for the Lebanese who lost their houses due to the Israeli bombardment the Hezbollah promised to help the population  rent accommodation before final arrangement could be made to help them rebuild their houses. A diplomatic coup and political manoeuvre an initiative which is making the Hezbollah more and more popular among the ordinary Arab population in the entire Region and Muslim World as a whole. One thing for sure is the invincibility surrounding the Israelis forces have been broken by the resilience of the Hezbollah during the five week conflict a myth which could not be challenged or broken by the combined Arab Army collectively or individually. At the same time the Hezbollah’s prestige has been enhanced everywhere not only in the Region but the whole Muslim World even the Israelis themselves were wondering as to how they managed to bear the brunt of anger of such powerful forces especially the sorties carried by the Air Force during the period of the bombardment thinking that they dismantled the rockets fired by the Hezbollah almost every day which turned out only to be wishful thinking. Therefore the only alternative left is to try the diplomatic solution as the Hezbollah rockets continued could not be contained as they continued to land in Northern Israel scaring the people running for cover and safety in the bunkers daily causing much inconvenience like the Lebanese could not escape the Israeli bombardments either at home or on the way with no choice to resign to their fates. So militarily the Hezbollah could not be crumbled or humbled by the might of the mighty invincible Israeli forces that could not be challenged  by the combined Arab forces so this is why both sides the Israelis and the Hezbollah are claiming victory in this conflict which is the essence of the War. In the end the Hezbollah’s resistance and reliance on God has confirmed the saying in the Quran: Those unto whom men said; Lo people have gathered against you therefore fear them but (instead) increased in faith and said Allah is sufficient for us. Most Excellent is He in Who we trust. So they returned with grace and favour from Allah and no harm touched them. They followed the good pleasure of Allah and Allah is of infinite bounty. It is only the devil who make his partisans fear (men).Fear them not but fear Me if you are true believers.

 

Wa Akhiri Daawana Anil Hamdu Lillahi Rabbil Alameen.

 

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